Mental Models

The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.

For many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

Breaking down complex problems into their most basic, foundational elements.

The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater 'availability' in memory.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Approaching a problem backwards by focusing on avoiding what you don't want.

Considering the long-term consequences of decisions beyond immediate outcomes.

Identifying and operating within one's area of expertise.

The loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.

The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered when making decisions.

The tendency to continue investing in something because of past investments, despite new evidence suggesting it's no longer the best course of action.

A system where the output affects the input, creating a cycle of cause and effect.

The gap between the intrinsic value of something and the price paid or resources allocated.

The addition of interest to the principal sum of a loan or deposit, resulting in interest on interest.

The logical error of concentrating on people or things that 'survived' a process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not.

The tendency of systems to move from order to disorder over time without the input of energy.

The study of strategic decision-making in competitive situations.

The phenomenon whereby a product or service becomes more valuable as more people use it.